2024 Election updates – Path to victory looks clear for Trump
Welcome to the Monitor’s live Election Day updates. As polls close across the U.S., and states begin to tally votes, we’re starting to track the results. Control of the White House, the U.S. House, and Senate hangs in the balance. We’re also tracking statewide ballot measures – on abortion rights, immigration, and marijuana, among others. Monitor reporters have fanned out to the key battleground states, and are providing regular updates, as are our anchors in Washington and Los Angeles. In an election like no other in American history, the stakes could not be higher. Please check back regularly for updates!
2:50 a.m. ET: Our live updates have ended
Go here to read further coverage of the 2024 election.
1:55 a.m. ET: First transgender congressperson is elected from Delaware
Delaware’s single U.S. House seat has gone to Democrat Sarah McBride, who will be the first openly transgender person to serve in Congress. Ms. McBride comes from the State Senate, where she served after gaining national recognition for her activism on behalf of the LGBTQ+ community.
With nearly all precincts reporting, the Delaware Department of Elections shows her with 57.7% of the vote, beating Republican John Walen who has 42.3%. They were vying for the seat vacated by Democrat Lisa Blunt, who tonight won her race for U.S. Senate.
Ms. McBride posted gratitude on the social platform X, writing: “Delaware has sent the message loud and clear that we must be a country that protects reproductive freedom,” guarantees paid family leave, affordable child care, access to affordable housing and health care, and that “this is a democracy that is big enough for all of us.”
Ms. McBride was previously a spokesperson for the Human Rights Campaign, the nation’s largest advocacy group for LGBTQ equality. Speaking to the Washington Blade, HRC president Kelley Robinson calls her election a “landmark achievement on the march toward equality.”
– Ali Martin, staff writer, reporting from Los Angeles
1:36 a.m. ET: Trump wins Pennsylvania
Both Fox News and DDHQ have called Pennsylvania for Donald Trump, effectively closing off the path for Vice President Kamala Harris to win the presidency. The former president is expected to speak soon from his estate in Mar-a-Lago.
Fox News anchor Bret Baier described Mr. Trump’s apparent victory as the biggest political phoenix rise from the ashes in American history – excepting perhaps Grover Cleveland, America’s post-Civil War president and a Democrat, who was the only president to leave the White House and return for a second term four years later. We are waiting to see if other networks join Fox in calling the race for Mr. Trump.
– Francine Kiefer, staff writer, reporting from Los Angeles
1:26 a.m ET: Trump takes Georgia, Harris clinging to “blue wall” path
Donald Trump is solidifying his hold on the South, with the Associated Press and other news outlets calling him the winner in the battle ground state of Georgia. Earlier he won another southern battleground, North Carolina.
The Peach Tree state was fiercely fought over and four years ago went narrowly for Joe Biden, who won the state by less than 12,000 votes. Mr. Trump fought the defeat and tried to overturn it, with the ensuing political and legal battle leading to his indictment in the state.
But this time, Mr. Trump prevailed, returning the state to the Republican column, a position it had held since 1996 (except for 2020), and expanding his pathway to 270 electoral college votes.
In a memo to staff, Kamala Harris’s campaign chair, Jen O’Malley Dillon, said that the “blue wall” of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin was now the “clearest path to victory for the Democrats. According to The Hill, the vice president will not address supporters at Howard University at a campaign victory party.
12:50 a.m. ET: Electoral votes: the math intrigue that doesn’t always add up
Electoral votes are adding up as polls close across the country and ballot counting begins.
The president needs a majority of the electoral votes to win – 270 out of a total 538 electors. And in all but two states – Nebraska and Maine – all of those electoral votes go for the candidate who wins the state’s popular vote, meaning: winner-take-all.
California, with nearly 40 million residents, has the most electoral votes: 54. And CNN is predicting Vice President Harris will take them.
Through the intrigue of math, a handful of presidents have won office but lost the popular vote. Former President Donald Trump was one of those winners, despite bringing in 2.8 million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton in 2016. In 2000, President George W. Bush won his post by one electoral vote even though he lost the popular vote to former Vice President Al Gore.
The Electoral College has long been under scrutiny. A September Pew Research poll shows nearly two-thirds of Americans would rather the president be determined by a more direct popular vote.
First-time voter Jasmine Vega wasn’t planning to vote today – she was on the fence about whether it would matter. But she made a game-day decision to head to her Los Angeles polling place, carrying her 6-month-old daughter – and a conviction that she could make a change.
“A lot of people have their opinions on whether or not this vote actually counts” because of the Electoral College she says. “I want to say that it does.”
– Ali Martin, staff writer, reporting from Los Angeles
12:07 a.m. ET: Cryptocurrency Bitcoin surges on early Trump lead
Bitcoin hit an all-time high – nearly $75,000 – as early election results show former President Donald Trump ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris.
Mr. Trump created his own crypto exchange in September, which critics say poses a potential conflict of interest should he win. He has also courted cryptocurrency corporations – and millions in campaign contributions – by pledging to ease federal regulations on the industry.
Vice President Kamala Harris has also appealed to crypto investors, many of whom are based in her native California. But after calling bitcoin a scam in 2021, Mr. Trump has rebranded himself as a big fan. At a bitcoin convention earlier this year, he said he would make America the “crypto capital of the planet and the Bitcoin superpower of the world.”
– Ali Martin, staff writer reporting from Los Angeles
11:40 p.m. ET: With Trump battleground state gains, Harris campaign looks to Blue Wall as electoral path
As the clock ticks toward midnight on the East Coast, here’s the state of play on the presidential race.
It’s looking good for Donald Trump, with Nate Cohn of the New York Times reporting that, “for the first time tonight, we consider Trump likely to win the presidency.”
The chief political analyst says the former president has an advantage in each of the Democrats’ “blue wall” states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. And the NYT and Associated Press just called battle ground North Carolina for Mr. Trump.
But there is still a lot of vote to be counted, and that’s what the Harris campaign is hanging on to. According to an email from the Harris campaign manager: “While we continue to see data trickle in from the Sun Belt states, we have known all along that our clearest path to 270 electoral votes lies through the Blue Wall states. And we feel good about what we’re seeing.”
– Francine Kiefer, staff writer, reporting from Los Angeles
10:07 p.m. ET: Abortion-rights measure in Florida loses
Pro-abortion-rights forces in Florida have failed in their effort to guarantee access to the procedure up to the point of fetal viability. In Florida, 60% of the vote is required to amend the state constitution, and with most of the vote in, Amendment 4 has fallen short with 57%, reports the Associated Press.
That means Florida’s current law – allowing abortion only up to six weeks’ gestational age – remains in place. Advocates for Amendment 4 argue that many women don’t know they’re pregnant at six weeks.
The Florida vote was a rare defeat for abortion-rights supporters nationwide, who have passed measures in a range of states (including red states) since Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022. But Florida is alone in requiring a 60% vote to amend its state constitution.
Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis, his administration, and outside groups fought hard to defeat the amendment. A website created by the state health agency claimed that the amendment “threatens women’s safety.” An opposing group took the state to court, arguing it had “unconstitutionally entered the debate.” But a Florida judge ruled in the state’s favor.
Nine other states have abortion measures on the ballot today. Here’s a rundown.
– Linda Feldmann, staff writer, reporting from Washington
9:46 p.m. ET: Will it be Election Day, or Weeks, in Arizona?
For many states, Election Day will likely to turn into Election Days or Weeks.
Officials have warned that could hold true here in Maricopa County, Arizona, one of the country’s most populous counties in a battleground state.
Many voters today are grappling with uncertainty, if not fear – and deep distrust of the other side.
If Donald Trump loses, “I don’t believe the United States will be here in four more years … [it] might be a totalitarian type of society,” says Brett Harwood, a repair technician who has now voted for the Republican three times.
Duane Hendrickson, meanwhile, physically crosses his fingers for Kamala Harris.
The choice is “good versus evil,” says the retiree. “I’m 79 years old, and I can’t believe that this is a tossup – that so many Americans are totally wrong,” says Mr. Hendrickson. He jokes about moving abroad.
On the eve of Election Day, Charlea Towns had a different take. On a walk with her Rottweiler-Lab mix Randi, the former Joe Biden voter – who now sides with Mr. Trump – doesn’t expect to be gutted if her candidate loses.
“I have faith that however things are supposed to work out is how they will work out,” says the Christian. “I just hope that whatever move the country makes next is what’s best for the country.”
9:21 p.m. ET: Navajo Nation sues in Arizona
In swing state Arizona, polls closed at 7 p.m. local time. But an Apache County judge ordered nine polling “locations” to stay open in response to a suit by the Navajo Nation alleging problems with access to voting.
The lawsuit claims that, in the Apache County area of the Navajo Reservation, “voters have either been denied the right to vote due to machines malfunctioning, lack of printed ballots, lack of provisional ballots, long lines, failure to accept adequate ID, or polls not being operational or open during posted voting hours.”
Developments in the lawsuit were reported by Votebeat.
Election officials weren’t immediately reachable for comment. An individual at the Apache County recorder’s office who answered a call from the Monitor on Tuesday evening, and who would not give their name, said the office was currently declining to comment.
– Sarah Matusek, staff writer, reporting from Phoenix
9:03 p.m. ET: Trump voters in blue California
In California, the question isn’t whether Vice President Kamala Harris will win the presidential vote, but by how much. Still, former President Donald Trump has his supporters here in Los Angeles, where the economy, crime, and immigration are top concerns – and they offer a window on his diverse base.
Isabel Velez, who owns a real estate business with her husband, notes interest rates, violence, and abortion as reasons she’s voting Republican – something she doesn’t broadcast around her friends.
“I’m not very well received,” she says, “so we just kind of support quietly.”
First-time voter Devon Che also voted for Mr. Trump. The 21-year old artist says he didn’t do a lot of research into ballot issues and local races, but this first-time voter who identifies as Jewish and Ukrainian feels the U.S. under President Joe Biden is funding violence in Ukraine and Gaza, which he wants to stop.
He also recalls easier economic times when Mr. Trump was in office: “It was very easy to just live life and buy day-to-day things and not worry about saving as much.”
The war in Ukraine is a concern for Kerri, too. The podcaster and advocate for seniors did not want to use her last name, but says she voted for Mr. Trump because “The U.S. is giving billions of dollars to Ukraine but there’s no money for [Americans] living in the streets. There’s no way I’m going to support an administration that doesn’t support Americans.”
– Ali Martin, staff writer, reporting from Los Angeles
8:32 p.m. ET: West Virginia Senate seat goes to GOP with ‘zero campaigning’
Republicans are one step closer to taking over the U.S. Senate. Jim Justice, the popular governor of West Virginia, has – according to the Associated Press and other outlets – handily won the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Joe Manchin, the independent who caucused with Democrats.
Mr. Justice is so popular he barely even campaigned against his opponent, Glenn Elliott, the Democratic former mayor of Wheeling.
“In the primary, I didn’t put a sign out,” he said during a press conference. “Think about this for a second: I didn’t put one single sign up, and I won by 35-plus points. The people of this state know me. They know me, and they know me really well. I’ve done almost zero campaigning.”
His victory was widely anticipated and chips away at the Democratic control of the Senate, which is 51-49.
– Francine Kiefer, staff writer
8:10 p.m. ET: De-escalating tension at the polls with prayer
Call it peacekeeping at the polls. The Rev. Dr. Dontá McGilvery has been serving as a “poll chaplain” today at vote centers in Arizona. He’s a mellow nonpartisan presence trained in de-escalation. He won’t engage in talk of candidates, but will offer water.
Speaking outside a Phoenix polling site this afternoon, he says the day has been tranquil so far.
That’s a change from 2022, when he faced harassment. His Election Day service is part of Faiths United to Save Democracy.
In this battleground state, the Baptist pastor says he’s joined by fellow poll chaplains from a variety of faiths, including Islam and Judaism.
His prayer?
“Lord, cover us today.” It’s one his family says each morning.
His 6-year-daughter, Améiah, in an online interfaith vigil last night, offered a musical blessing.
Her song?
“America the Beautiful.”
– Sarah Matusek, staff writer, reporting from Phoenix
Sarah Matusek/The Christian Science Monitor
7:36 p.m. ET: Poll watching: New rules, new tensions, especially in Wisconsin
As states begin to tally votes, many will be doing so under different rules than they’re used to.
Poll watchers – volunteers, some affiliated with parties or candidates, who can observe election workers counting ballots and look for irregularities – will be present in large numbers as votes are counted tonight.
“We haven’t seen any evidence of harassment or intimidation … but we’re going to be watching closely this evening,” said Jay Heck, executive director of the non-partisan Common Cause in Wisconsin, on a press call this afternoon.
Since former President Donald Trump falsely claimed widespread fraud in the 2020 presidential election, 21 bills in 17 states have changed laws around election observation. According to Voting Rights Lab, a nonpartisan group that monitors voting laws and voter suppression, these changes alter either the observation process for poll watchers or the number of authorized observers allowed in a polling site.
Mr. Trump’s campaign and Republican political groups, meanwhile, have trained tens of thousands of poll watchers in this hyper-partisan election cycle, Axios reported. Democratic groups have done likewise, as well as nonpartisan groups like Common Cause and the League of Women Voters, Reuters reported. The U.S. Department of Justice has dispatched election monitors to 86 counties in 27 states, the most in two decades, according to the Washington Post.
In Wisconsin, the concerns are heightened. This swing state is one of several that could determine the election’s outcome, and its July primary saw election workers who were supporting Mr. Trump object to every single mail-in vote being counted.
“With the high tension, the high temperature of this election, I think everybody is just watching carefully,” said Mr. Heck. “So far, so good. But the real test will be tonight.”
– Henry Gass, staff writer
6:41 p.m. ET: The final get-out-the-vote push, on a Las Vegas sidewalk
With just hours until polls close in Nevada, a small group of volunteers for the Harris-Walz campaign are still knocking on apartment doors in suburban Henderson to bring out voters – and encourage them to vote Democratic.
It’s part of a nationwide last-minute push for every last vote.
Gaetano Faleo, a research scientist from San Francisco, flew into the Las Vegas area on Monday to help with the Democrats’ ground game in this potentially pivotal swing state.
He clutches a handful of brochures touting Ms. Harris for president, Jacky Rosen for U.S. Senate, as well as Dina Titus, Greg Kidd, Susie Lee, and Steven Horsford for Nevada’s four congressional districts.
Mr. Faleo estimates he had knocked on roughly 70 doors so far on Election Day.
“We’ve had some good conversations,” he says.
– Jackie Valley, staff writer, reporting from Henderson, Nevada
Jackie Valley/The Christian Science Monitor
6:23 p.m. ET: How has Kamala Harris spent Election Day?
Vice President Kamala Harris spent Election Day in Washington – doing multiple radio interviews and visiting the Democratic National Committee headquarters and its phone-banking operation. She made some calls to voters herself.
At one point, Ms. Harris walked over to a phone and picked it up, according to the pool report. “I am well,” she said. “Have you voted already? You did? Thank you!” The room cheered.
Tonight, Ms. Harris will hold her election watch party at her alma mater, Howard University, a historically Black college. President Joe Biden’s stated plan is to watch election returns from the White House.
What Ms. Harris didn’t do today is vote. The vice president cast her ballot over the weekend by mail. And as a California resident, she got to vote on the state’s 10 ballot measures, including one that would reverse criminal justice reforms. On Sunday, while campaigning in Michigan, reporters asked Ms. Harris about that referendum item.
“I’m not going to talk about the vote on that. Because honestly, it’s the Sunday before the election and I don’t intend to create an endorsement one way or another around it,” said Ms. Harris, who previously served as San Francisco district attorney and California attorney general.
By not answering that question, Ms. Harris was playing it safe. If she said she supported the referendum, that would inflame the left. If she opposed it, that would allow Mr. Trump to call her “soft on crime.”
This evening, Ms. Harris will record one more radio interview: with Zerlina Maxwell on SiriusXM’s Progress Channel. It’s one final shot at reaching voters before the polls close.
– Linda Feldmann, staff writer
6:06 p.m. ET: Trump claims “MASSIVE cheating” in Philadelphia, without evidence
The polls aren’t closed, but former President Donald Trump is already pushing unfounded claims that the election is being rigged against him.
“A lot of talk about massive CHEATING in Philadelphia. Law Enforcement coming!!!” Mr. Trump posted on social media late Tuesday afternoon.
There have been no credible reports of widespread voting issues in Philadelphia, and local officials pushed back hard against the claim.
“There is absolutely no truth to this allegation. It is yet another example of disinformation. Voting in Philadelphia has been safe and secure,” Seth Bluestein, the Republican commissioner on Philadelphia’s election board, posted in response.
Philadelphia became a flash point in the 2020 election when its late-counted absentee votes were the ones to put Joe Biden over the top statewide in Pennsylvania, leading news networks to call the presidential election for Mr. Biden.
Mr. Trump and his allies claimed widespread cheating in the city and other swing-state Democratic strongholds throughout the country, kicking off a months-long attempt to overturn his election loss that culminated in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot.
He’s signaled that he’s likely to claim victory on election night 2024 whether he’s winning or losing.
Philadelphia will once again take some time to count all its votes. State law forces a slow process, and Republicans blocked efforts to change the law to allow early votes to be processed before Election Day. Mr. Trump’s comments indicate that he and allies will once again use that slow count to push false claims that the election is being rigged against him.
– Cameron Joseph, staff writer, in Washington
Rachel Wisniewski/Reuters
5:20 p.m. ET: Reporting from polls on Election Day can be weird, and also wonderful
The hardest part of reporting, to me, is randomly approaching people on the street. We call that vox pop. And for as much as you hate being approached by a journalist like me, I hate having to catch you off guard, interrupt you, or make you feel bad for not talking to me. But I do it, because your views are absolutely critical. We get more “no” than “yes.” We generally always need a first and last name, and many people don’t want their name on the record for everyone to see forever. But sometimes you say the most brilliant and insightful things and I think, why? Why won’t you put your name to that amazing idea?
I’ve seen and heard more caution today in the swing state of Michigan than I normally do. People worried what their neighbors will think if they say they are voting for Donald Trump. People lowering their voices when they say having Kamala Harris as president means everything to them but they can’t consider saying that in print. Today I don’t feel frustrated by it, or even the slightest bit wearied. You are thoughtful, and generous, and we are so grateful.
– Sara Miller Llana, staff writer, reporting from Dearborn and Warren, Michigan
5:10 p.m. ET: Why Donald Trump, a convicted felon, was allowed to vote
Former President Donald Trump, a Florida resident, voted in person around mid-day at a recreation center in Palm Beach. His wife, Melania, was at his side.
Afterward, reporters asked the former president if he’d concede an election loss, and he said: “If I lose an election, if it’s a fair election, I’m going to be the first one to acknowledge it, and I think it’s – well, so far, I think it’s been fair.”
Mr. Trump also said this was likely to be his last election campaign. And he declined to say how he voted on Amendment 4, a proposed amendment to the Florida constitution that would guarantee abortion rights up to fetal viability. As I reported in September from Florida – a red state expected to vote for Mr. Trump – Amendment 4 is the biggest question on the state’s ballot.
But wait: How is it that Mr. Trump was allowed to vote in the first place? After all, Florida makes it difficult for people convicted of a felony to regain their voting rights. The former president was found guilty in May of 34 counts of falsifying business records in a hush-money arrangement with porn actress Stormy Daniels.
That trial took place in New York, and Florida’s practice is to defer to the state law in place where the felony conviction occurred. New York enacted a law in 2021 that allows felons to vote as long as they’re not incarcerated on Election Day. Mr. Trump faces sentencing on Nov. 26. He is appealing the conviction.
But for now, Mr. Trump is focused on winning the election. Tonight, he will host a party at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach.
– Linda Feldmann, staff writer, reporting from Washington
5:03 p.m. ET: A Georgia poll manager on why he’s not worried, despite bomb threats
Democrats in the swing state of Georgia are keeping a close eye on several key counties today.
One of them is Baldwin County, population 43,000, in central Georgia, where the home of the late Southern writer Flannery O’Connor still stands. Ms. O’Connor raised peacocks here while penning stories where violence sometimes paved the way to grace.
Today, fake bomb threats at several Georgia poll places on Election Day have raised fears about political violence.
But Tony Hurt, a poll manager at The Annex building in the county seat of Milledgeville, says he’s not too concerned. Most people, he says, have already voted.
Having spent decades as an election official here has taught him one thing: “If we’re going to err, let’s err on the side of the voter. In other words, let’s make it as easy as possible to vote.”
Baldwin County voters chose Joe Biden in 2020 by a slimmer margin than they chose Bill Clinton in 1992 – the last two Democrat presidential candidates to win Georgia. Sen. Raphael Warnock also won Baldwin. But while conservative suburban counties around Atlanta have been growing more liberal, Baldwin, which has a larger-than-average share of African American residents, has been trending more conservative. Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican, won the county the same year that Senator Warnock did.
Just over 53% of Baldwin County voters have already cast their ballot, far below the 67% turnout in the 2022 election.
And far on Tuesday, the turnout at Mr. Hurt’s precinct was 30% below average. “But we should get another rush around dinner time,” he says.
Interestingly, Mr. Hurt says he has seen a lot of new faces, many of them younger voters.
Taken together, those two details could suggest a tough evening for Democrats, who need a strong turnout among African American voters in places like Baldwin. The presence of new and younger faces is harder to interpret. Both campaigns are vying for young voters. Democrats need younger women to vote, and Republicans need younger men.
“It’s a consequential election and I think people just want to come out and make sure their vote counts,” says Mr. Hurt. “It’s good to see. Our job is to make sure the election is fair, decent, and in order. That way, people can walk away feeling that their concerns have been resolved.”
– Patrik Jonsson, staff writer, reporting from Milledgeville, Georgia
Patrik Jonsson/The Christian Science Monitor
4:50 p.m. ET: Voters in Michigan’s pivotal Macomb County turn out
Michigan’s Macomb County may be one of the most coveted counties among the presidential candidates. And Cesar Trocea is a reason why. He voted for Donald Trump in 2020 (and says he would have in 2016 too if he had been old enough to vote).
But, as he exited a polling station at Warren Woods Baptist Church in this neighborhood, considered an outer ring of Detroit, he said he placed his vote for Kamala Harris this time. Not because he believes Mr. Trump will mean the end of democracy, as the Democrats have framed it. It’s for much more banal reasons.
“I think we need younger people in office,” Mr. Trocea says. His partner, Alyssa Orlans, says her priority is the economy and women’s reproductive rights, so her vote was clear.
Yet even though both sides have painted this election in dire terms, she says. “There will be effects from it, but it’s not life or death.”
This county is contested because of how much it has shifted, and continues to shift. On the couple’s street, they say they find those of Eastern European descent (Mr. Trocea is of Romanian ancestry), Black, Pakistani, and Chinese families. It’s also shifting from older to younger residents. This is the auto industry heartland – General Motors is the biggest employer here. Macomb Country has been called a home for “Reagan Democrats,” or working-class Democrats who voted twice for Ronald Reagan in the 1980s. In 2020, Macomb went for Mr. Trump with 53% of the vote.
Mr. Trocea, a registered Republican, agrees with many Trump policies, especially border patrol. He just thinks Kamala Harris will do a better job.
“I don’t think there is any wrong answer to this race,” he says.
– Sara Miller Llana, staff writer, reporting from Warren, Michigan
4:45 p.m. ET: In North Carolina, a 92-year-old veteran and a 19-year old student among those casting their ballots
In the heart of the Queen City, about 30 minutes apart, among the youngest and oldest voters in the city cast their ballots.
Alyssa Mark, a 19-year-old health science major at Johnson and Wales University, cast her ballot for the first time. Her choice? Kamala Harris.
“I feel like I’ve done something good for our country, our community,” she said. “For Black people, it’s a constant fight to put our stamp on this country and leave our mark.”
She aspires to be a respiratory therapist, and hopes that she and her friends can provide a breath of fresh air.
“It’s a constant conversation. … What can we do to make this place a better place?” she asks. “What can we do so that when we have kids, they feel comfortable in this country and they feel like they can accomplish things?”
Sandy Tillman, a 92-year-old Air Force retiree, offered a different type of optimism after he voted for Ms. Harris, implying that she was the only choice for him.
“When you wake up tomorrow and someone asks, ‘Who’s the president?’ you don’t know (the winner). You just deal with the hand that you’re dealt,” he said. “Everything is good. …Life is what you make of it.”
Also hoping to make something of his life is Steven Boyd. With his modest build and pristine Quail Hollow cap, he looks more like a pro golfer than a solar installer.
“I’m pushing about 70 hours a week,” he says, adding that taxes and the economy are driving his vote. “So when you make $1,600 in overtime and then the feds come in and you’re only pulling like $900 of it back, why am I doing the extra effort?” he asks. “Getting rid of the overtime tax, especially in the blue-collar community, will be an instant boost.”
Mr. Boyd also expressed concern for his colleagues, some of whom have little wiggle room when it comes to making ends meet.
“Most of the guys, I mean, they’ve got apartments, and are just stable enough where they can’t qualify for any government assistance,” he says. “But that tax keeps us on the border.”
That policy initiative, among concerns about the country’s sense of ethics, is why he voted for Donald Trump.
“I’ve been watching the country kind of degrade,” Mr. Boyd says. “There’s a morality debate right now. …I think you see a lot of that in the voting [for conservatives].”
– Ken Makin, special contributor, reporting from Charlotte, North Carolina
4:38 p.m. ET: In New Hampshire, voter turnout high among new voters
Mackenzie Verdiner, 18, started her day texting friends and holding signs for her preferred local candidates. “It feels like a holiday to me,” said Ms. Verdiner, a college student aiming to become a community organizer. “I want to be loud for the things I support.” She cast her vote for Kamala Harris, saying, “She’s a real person. She’s not looking out for the 1%, she’s looking out for everybody.”
Regardless of the outcome, Ms. Verdiner hopes her efforts help people feel more connected. She notes that “We’re still Americans at the end of the day.”
New to the Granite State, Giselle Alvarez, 21, registered to vote at the election office today. As the oldest of four siblings raised by a single mom, Ms. Alvarez says, “the cost of living is a big deal for her family.”
While she wants to keep her candidate choice private, the Florida native encouraged other young voters to “trust their instincts and vote for what they believe is right.” She added, “We can lead this country to a better place if we come together.”
Ms. Alvarez said she was excited to cast her ballot. “This is my first time voting, so I really needed this,” she says. “It’s not as scary as it seemed.”
She was among the many New Hampshire voters commenting on the peacefulness of the day. The Manchester polling site had more than 30 people waiting patiently to register for same-day voting. Poll workers interviewed said they were surprised and pleased by the number of unregistered voters who came out today.
Many voters interviewed around New Hampshire said they felt confident in the safety and security of the voting process in the Granite State today.
Beck Owen, 22, cast her first vote as a registered independent, choosing Kamala Harris. “Voting has always been important to me – it’s our civic duty,” she says. Although Ms. Owen’s friends hold different views, she values open dialogue and listening. “It’s more important to listen to each other with an open mind,” she explained. “If everyone around you shares the same opinion, you’re stuck in an echo chamber with no new ideas.”
– Troy Aidan Sambajon, staff writer, reporting from Manchester, New Hampshire
3:55 p.m. ET: Voters agree grocery store prices are too high. They disagree on who will fix it.
Food is too expensive. That’s one thing that two voters in Easton, Pennsylvania, agree on. But they don’t agree on which candidate is more likely to fix that.
Gerry Butler, who used to work for a company that made shampoo and conditioner, voted for Kamala Harris. Meanwhile, Betty, a retired hairdresser who declined to share her last name citing concern for family members’ privacy, voted for Donald Trump.
“I’ve noticed that everything in the supermarket has gotten smaller and higher prices,” says Ms. Butler. A registered Democrat, she voted for Mr. Biden in 2020, and says she is pleased with the efforts that the Biden-Harris administration has made to ease economic pressures – though she thinks they’ve been limited by opposition from Congressional Republicans.
Betty, too, feels the impact of higher food prices. “It was so much easier four years ago,’’ she says. “The gas wasn’t this high, and we had money to buy food.” A registered Democrat who recalls voting for former President Barack Obama, Betty is a three-time Trump voter. “I liked the way he promised us things, and he carried through,” she says. “I don’t like the way he talks.”
Food prices have risen more sharply in Philadelphia and the surrounding area than almost anywhere else in the country since 2021. And the state saw the highest increase in grocery prices of any state in 2023. Eight in 10 voters nationally say that the economy is their top priority in this election, and a Nov. 1 poll of Pennsylvanians found voters split almost down the middle. Some 51% believe that Mr. Trump would handle the economy better, and 49% believe Ms. Harris would.
Sophie Hills, staff writer, reporting from Easton, Pennsylvania
3:50 p.m. ET: DJs at the Polls provide mood music for voters
Michael Duke, a DJ, mostly does weddings. Today in Gilbert, Arizona, he’s offering dance-worthy jams for democracy. With his speaker outside Freestone Recreation Center, he’s trying to pump voters up. He’s part of a national effort through DJs at the Polls, a group that calls itself a nonpartisan get-out-the-vote initiative.
“It’s important to involve everyone in the process of voting,” says the DJ. “It’s all about America.”
He does indeed start his set with “Party in the U.S.A.” by Miley Cyrus. He also says he’s taking requests.
“Let’s make voting a party,” he says.
– Sarah Matusek, staff writer, reporting from Gilbert, Arizona
Sarah Matusek/The Christian Science Monitor
3:45 p.m. ET: The Wisconsin voter who stayed up all night to vote
Voters pulled their jackets tight around them and leaned into the wind as they sought the shelter of the polling place set up for the day at the D2 Sports Bar in Hobart, a township in Wisconsin’s Brown County, a mostly working class county in a state that both sides worked hard to win over in the final days of the 2024 campaign. The weather was miserable. The rain lashed the empty fields and suburban housing complexes just outside Green Bay while a cold wind tore at the last yellow and brown leaves that still clung to the trees in the surrounding woods. But the weather seemed hardly to discourage voters. The parking lot filled early, as residents hurried to cast their vote before rushing off to work. They seemed just as divided as the polls in Wisconsin have suggested.
Eddie Smith was one of the first. He finished work as a blackjack dealer at 4 a.m. at the Oneida Casino a few miles away. He hadn’t gone to bed but had stayed up to vote. A lifelong Democrat, he said he voted for Kamala Harris, though his vote seemed as much against Donald Trump as for Ms. Harris.
“She’s the better alternative,” he said. He went on, “I think Donald Trump is dangerous. His rhetoric, how he’s stated he wants to weaponize the government.”
Meanwhile, he said, the country is “doing okay.” He paused and gave a small chuckle. “The economy is doing better than it was four years ago. Immigration isn’t where it should be. They tried to fix it but [Republicans] shut that down.”
Chris Gresham, who also came early, voted for Donald Trump. “I think Donald Trump is concerned about the same things the average American is concerned about, which are the border and the economy,” said Mr. Gresham, a young press operator at a printing plant in DePere. “I just know that when he was in office he did everything he could to control our border and that’s what he’ll do this time.”
This was his third time voting for Trump, he said. Then he pulled his hood tighter around his head and hurried to his car.
– By Richard Mertens, special contributor, reporting in Hobart, Wisconsin
2:37 p.m. ET: Arab American voters in Michigan torn over war in the Middle East
Pocketbooks determine elections. But in this part of Michigan, it could come down to foreign policy.
The city of Dearborn in Michigan counts 55% of residents with Middle Eastern or North African ancestry, the largest Arab American majority city in America. The community has historically voted Democrat, but this year is like no other.
This state spurred the Uncommitted Movement, which pledged not to endorse President Joe Biden in the Democratic primary, over U.S. support for Israel in the war in Gaza. The movement’s members are demanding a ceasefire. Two nearby mayors, in Hamtramck and Dearborn Heights, have endorsed former President Donald Trump.
Zana Dakroub is of Lebanese descent and is playing T-ball with her grandson across from a polling station in Dearborn. “My biggest concern is my safety,” she says. She’s not talking about her personal safety in her home, with its tidy lawn at the corner of a leafy street lined with handsome “Ford homes.” “I don’t feel safe in the world, and I think there’s a better percentage with Trump than with [Harris] to put an end to the wars.”
The Arab American voting bloc is estimated at 200,000 here. That is bigger than the number of votes with which Mr. Trump won Michigan in 2016 (11,000) and lost in 2020 (154,000). Nasser Aljahmi, of Yemeni descent, is handing out flyers for school board elections outside a polling station in this Dearborn community. He cites the exact top concerns as Ms. Dakroub – economy and foreign policy. But his vote is going for Ms. Harris, despite sharing concerns that the Democratic Party has gone too liberal on social issues, especially in schools. “I want the war to be stopped. And they are both weak on it. … But I feel that Harris is more humane.”
Mr. Aljahmi says he would vote Republican, as he has in several past elections, if it were any other candidate. “Mine is a vote against Trump.”
– Sara Miller Llana, staff writer, reporting from Dearborn, Michigan
1:45 p.m. ET: In Georgia, turnout today is light. It’s not what you think.
Greetings from the Peach State, where it’s Election Day Lite today.
Over 4 million people have already voted, according to Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. That leaves only 1.5 million to 2 million people left to vote today across the 59,000-square-mile Deep South state.
Small, rural counties, most of them traditional Republican strongholds, will wrap up counting first, likely leading to a large Trump lead early in the evening, especially considering some North Georgia counties where he is expected to get over 70% of the vote.
Then, all eyes will turn to the five major counties around Atlanta, especially the northern suburbs, where Joe Biden narrowly won the 2020 election.
Key to watch will be the impact of Trump wariness in this state, where the former president tried to pressure Gov. Brian Kemp to procure the votes he needed to win in 2020. In the aftermath, Georgia’s Republican party largely split into two camps – pro-Trump and anyone-but-Trump.
Since then, elections have resulted in candidates with close ties to Mr. Trump, like Herschel Walker, losing and candidates who have resisted Trump’s gravitational pull, like Governor Kemp, winning. A snapshot of that dynamic: all of Georgia’s constitutional officers are Republicans, while its two U.S. senators are Democrats.
A key reason Trump has been up in the polls so far in Georgia is the gender gap factor. Registered male voters are 18 percentage points more likely to vote for Mr. Trump. Female voters are 16 percentage points more likely to vote for Ms. Harris. There are more active women voters than men in Georgia.
As a result, Mr. Trump’s hopes in this state lie with mobilizing “young good old boys who usually don’t vote,’’ says Charles Bullock, a veteran political scientist at the University of Georgia, in Athens.
But the latest Times/Siena poll shows that the gender gap has narrowed to nearly even. If that holds, Ms. Harris has a good shot at following in President Biden’s footsteps and winning Georgia. After all, according to the Secretary of State’s office, the massive early vote has been 55% women and 45% men.
Stay tuned.
– Patrik Jonsson, staff writer, reporting from Georgia’s Baldwin County
1:10 p.m. ET: This Pennsylvania county’s voters have a history of picking presidents
When campaign organizers woke up today in eastern Pennsylvania, they probably breathed a collective sigh of relief at the bright sun and clear blue skies. Weather, at least, won’t keep voters from the polls. For weeks now, voter turnout has been the name of the game here. Workers for Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign in the Keystone State say they knocked on 807,000 doors last Saturday alone, while former President Donald Trump’s campaign has struggled to organize its ground game. Mr. Trump, however, has the star power of billionaire tech entrepreneur Elon Musk, who’s running a controversial $1 million voter registration giveaway and has spent significant time stumping across the state for the Republican nominee.
Polling shows that Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump are separated by a razor-thin margin in Pennsylvania, which carries 19 electoral votes.
Here in Northampton County, voters have backed the winning presidential candidate in all elections but three for over 100 years. Former President Obama won the county in 2012, which then swung to former President Trump in 2016. In 2020, President Biden won the county by less than one percentage point, or 1,233 votes.
Once the headquarters of Bethlehem Steel, a giant American steel manufacturer for almost 150 years, the area has reinvented itself since the plant closed in 2003. There’s been steady population growth, and the Latino population – mainly Puerto Rican and Dominican – has quadrupled since the 1990s, even while other formerly-industrial Rust Belt communities shrink.
Sam Dao, a Harris voter in Easton, registered as a Democrat in 2020 but didn’t cast a ballot because he was confident Mr. Biden would win. This election is his first time voting. With Ms. Harris’ experience in all three branches of government, “it’s a given that she should be president,” he says.
“I just feel like Trump sets a bad precedent,” he says, adding that he finds the former president’s rhetoric to be “racist, derogatory, and dehumanizing” – especially at the recent Madison Square Garden rally.
Ms. Harris rallied yesterday in Allentown, on the county’s border, and Mr. Trump did the same in Reading.
– Caitlin Babcock and Sophie Hills, staff writers, reporting from Easton, Pennsylvania
12:46 p.m. ET: Independent voters are likely to determine who wins Nevada
In Nevada, tight races could be decided by people like Laura Beth Gwiazdowski, a registered independent voter. She cast her ballot for Vice President Kamala Harris shortly after polls opened on Election Day in Las Vegas.
“I’m a gay woman, so I want a representative that’s going to not take away rights – that’s going to ensure that me and people in my community are safe,” she says while standing outside Allegiant Stadium, a vote center in the shadows of the famed Las Vegas Strip.
Ms. Harris and former President Donald Trump have been jockeying for Nevada’s six electoral votes with frequent campaign stops in the Silver State, where about a third of active registered voters are nonpartisans.
Heading into Election Day, more than half (53.5%) of eligible registered voters in Nevada had participated through mail ballots, absentee ballots, or early voting. Of those votes already cast, 33.8% came from registered Democrats, 37.7% from registered Republicans, and 28.6% from nonpartisans and other political parties.
Today’s big question is how many more voters will turn out – and whether nonpartisan voters will break for Democrats or Republicans. Just past 9 a.m. local time, 28,846 people had voted on Tuesday in populous Clark County, which includes the Las Vegas metropolitan area.
Among them was Diana Serna, who voted for President Joe Biden in 2020 but this time cast her ballot for former President Donald Trump. The mother of a 5-month-old son, she says her decision came down to inflation and the war in the Middle East.
“There was no war when Mr. Trump was in presidency compared to the last four years,” says Ms. Serna, who moved to Las Vegas from Lebanon 12 years ago.
– Jackie Valley, staff writer, reporting from Las Vegas
Jackie Valley/The Christian Science Monitor
12:38 p.m. ET: Georgia officials link poll site bomb threats to Russia
In the crucial swing state of Georgia, election officials have reported false bomb threats to some polling sites this morning – and they have linked those threats to Russia.
Nadine Williams, director of registration and elections in Fulton County, said they have received five “non-credible” bomb threats, resulting in the temporary evacuation of two polling locations at local schools Tuesday morning, the Atlanta News First reported. Officials in Fulton County, home to Atlanta, have requested to keep two polling locations open for an extra 30 minutes tonight, CNBC reported.
At a press conference later in the morning, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said the bomb threats had come from Russia.
“They’re up to mischief, it seems, and they don’t want us to have a smooth, fair, and accurate election,” he said. “Anything that can get us to fight among ourselves, they can count that as a victory.”
– Henry Gass, staff writer, reporting from Austin, Texas
12:27 p.m. ET: The New Hampshire voters crossing party lines
Hello from Belknap County, New Hampshire. Since 2008, this county has traditionally been a Republican stronghold. But this Election Day, signs show that voters here are now leaning over party lines.
John Miller, 88, a retired school maintenance worker, switched his affiliation from Republican to Democrat two years ago. He still supports Republicans in some local races. But “I wasn’t going to vote for Trump,’’ says Mr. Miller. “He’s caused more trouble than anybody.’’
After voting for Donald Trump in 2016, Mr. Miller backed Joe Biden in 2020. Today, he says, he’s hoping to prevent another Trump term: “I prayed every night that [Kamala Harris] would take care of it.”
Philip Smith, a finance professional and lifelong Republican, voted for Nikki Haley in the primaries, but chose Kamala Harris and Tim Walz today. He doesn’t believe Donald Trump’s widespread false rumors of fake news.
“I’m tired of the divisiveness,” Mr. Smith explained. “I’m hoping for more moderation on both sides so that we can turn back to getting things done in this country.”
Frederick Neinas, a retired physician, renounced his Republican affiliation years ago over what he saw as dramatic changes within the party. Having previously supported candidates like Mitt Romney in 2012 and Hillary Clinton in 2016, Mr. Neinas expressed concern about democracy’s fragility following Jan. 6. “Democracy is fragile. It’s important to vote for the right person, not for us, but for our grandchildren,” he cautioned.
– Troy Sambajon, staff writer, reporting from Laconia, New Hampshire
12:00 p.m. ET: How one state is protecting its vote, and its voters
Even though I’m reporting in Charlotte, North Carolina, today, I was thinking back to Sunday, when former President Bill Clinton canvassed for the Harris-Walz ticket in my native Augusta, Georgia. Security was understandably tight, and it made me think: What type of protections are being taken on Election Day?
This morning, I had a brief conversation with Richmond County Board of Elections Director Travis Doss about what security looks like, both in terms of the ballot and the folks casting their vote. This interview has been lightly edited for length:
What measures are being taken to secure votes?
Regarding the actual votes, Georgia uses a paper-based system. Voters mark their votes on a tablet and then print out a paper ballot that is then scanned into a tabulator. Neither the vote-marking device nor the scanner are connected to the internet. At the end of the night, the memory cards from each of the scanners are brought to a central tabulation area where the votes are uploaded. All voting machines and scanners are sealed through the voting day.
What about the security of voters?
Regarding physical security, Richmond County has worked with the Richmond County Sheriff’s Office to have our 43 polling locations divided into zones where we have direct contact with the zone captain if we have any issues. Also tonight we will have deputies at polling locations when the polls close to make sure there are not any type of issues while the poll workers complete their close out procedures.
How does security tie-in to election integrity?
As far as election security and integrity, everything that we do is open to the public to view and witness. We use multiple chain of custody forms, and all voting equipment has multiple seals that are verified before, during, and after the voting process. There are multiple checks and balances in place to include verifying the number of people who voted is equal to the number of ballots scanned. All voters must present one of six forms of required photo ID. Georgia takes voting security and integrity very seriously.
– Ken Makin, special contributor
11:30 a.m. ET: What are the big issues on states’ ballots?
Not to be forgotten this Election Day is that a number of states are voting on some pretty important ballot initiatives. Not only will we likely know the results of these votes quickly – unlike other important races being voted on today – but they will also tell us a lot about how a majority of the country feels on divisive issues like drug legalization, the minimum wage, and abortion rights.
Here’s a quick rundown of which states are voting on what issues:
Abortion
Since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, the U.S. Constitution no longer protects a right to abortion. That does not prevent state constitutions from doing so, however, and 10 states are voting today to enshrine in their constitutions a right to abortion. The states are: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New York, and South Dakota.
More than perhaps any other issue, abortion-related ballot measures have the potential to drive voter turnout in a decisive direction today.
Drug legalization
Four states are voting on legalizing marijuana: Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Florida. In Massachusetts, meanwhile, voters are deciding on legalizing psychedelics.
As of April 2024, recreational use of marijuana is legal in 24 states and Washington, D.C., according to the Pew Research Center. Fourteen states have legalized marijuana for medical use only. Marijuana use is still illegal under federal law.
Psychedelics are legalized in Oregon and Colorado and considered the “lowest law enforcement priority” in major cities like Seattle, Denver, Minneapolis, and Portland, Maine, according to Psychedelic Alpha, an independent newsletter focusing on psychedelic medicine.
Citizenship voting
Illegal immigration has been top-of-mind for voters this year, and Republicans nationwide have been pushing for citizenship requirements to vote.
You must be a U.S. citizen to vote in federal elections, but you generally aren’t required to show proof of your citizenship when you vote. Today, eight states – Iowa, Idaho, Kentucky, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Wisconsin – are voting on whether or not to adopt that requirement.
Instances of unauthorized immigrants voting are “so rare as to be statistically nonexistent,” Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, senior fellow at the American Immigration Council, told my colleagues in September.
Minimum wage
Three states are voting to increase their minimum wage in Alaska, California, and Missouri. Massachusetts voters are considering whether to raise the wage for tipped workers to the state minimum. Meanwhile, in Arizona, voters are considering a ballot measure that would decrease the minimum wage for tipped workers.
– Henry Gass, staff writer, reporting from Austin, Texas
10:35 a.m. ET: Trying to get to the pivotal swing state of Michigan
I’m in Toronto heading to the battleground state of Michigan. My flight to Detroit was outrageously priced, and much more expensive than Monday or Wednesday flights, so I thought maybe I’d find a plane (and airport) full of Americans heading home to vote. So far, I am finding a microcosm of the American electorate, and of the globe, watching this historic race.
There is Dean Craver, a barber from central Florida, who voted early and for the first time at age 32. A dual Canadian-American citizen, he registered as a Republican right after the first assassination attempt on Mr. Trump. “This is the first time I’ve felt like I had to vote,” he says. “Trump is a leader who stands up for Americans.”
There is Mark Goodwin, from California, who voted for Harris two weeks ago. “It’s a vote for sanity and stability,” says the retired technology worker and registered Democrat.
Then there is the registered Republican, a retired military medic, who is heading to Washington, D.C., today so that he can vote – against Trump because, he says, “it’s been put in sharp relief how unqualified he is to be a leader.”
Ahmed Musa, heading back to Minneapolis, says he has always voted Democrat. Originally from Somalia, his favorite president of all time was Bill Clinton. But this year he’s not voting at all. “It’s all the same, same, same,” he says.
When I asked in a packed elevator if anyone was American heading to the polls, one man answered: “No, we are Canadians, praying.”
– Sara Llana, staff writer, reporting from Toronto shortly before her plane finally boarded
10:15 a.m. ET: In Georgia, a question: Will young men show up at the polls?
Polls are now open across much of the country, and Monitor reporters have been watching the sun rise from polling sites in the battleground states likely to decide this election.
In Georgia, Patrik Jonsson is en route to rural Baldwin County. In 2020, President Joe Biden became just the second Democrat to win the state in 40 years. While predominantly African American, the county is far from deep blue. It elected President Joe Biden in 2020 and Sen. Raphael Warnock in 2022 – both Democrats – but in 2018 Republican Gov. Brian Kemp lost the area by 0.3%.
If former President Donald Trump is going to take Georgia back, he will probably have to carry Baldwin County, as well as the booming Atlanta suburbs, where Patrik will be heading later today. Law and order are a big priority for voters there, and Patrik says he’s going to be looking for how many young men turn out.
With young voters starkly divided by gender this election, Mr. Trump put an added focus on that demographic in the closing stages of the campaign. He will be hoping a late endorsement from Joe Rogan – host of the most listened-to podcast on Spotify – will give him an Election Day bump. As Patrik says: “I know women are going to show up. I know the older guys are going to show up. Are the 20 year-olds?”
– Henry Gass, staff writer
9:45 a.m. ET: Voting is underway in Arizona
Good morning from the Southwest. Voter centers opened at 6 a.m. local time in Arizona’s Maricopa County, one of the most populous counties in the country. The more than 2.5 million registered voters here make up over half of this swing state’s voter base.
Maricopa became a hotbed for discredited election conspiracies in 2020. Election officials have since shored up security, transparency, and new equipment. They’re also appealing to voters for patience, saying factors like a longer than usual two-page ballot and a new change in state law on election tasks are expected to cause delays.
“We ask you to be patient,” said Zach Schira, assistant county manager for elections and external affairs, at a Monday press conference. “Let us do our job, and we will be transparent about what we have done and what we have left to do.”
Meanwhile, Stephen Richer, the county recorder, is bracing for post-election litigation, given ongoing scrutiny of the battleground state.
Joe Biden won Arizona in 2020, the first Democrat to do so since 1996. Yet President Biden clinched victory by less than 1 percentage point – 10,457 votes. Beyond the White House race, Arizonans will also get to vote their conscience on abortion access and illegal immigration.
– Sarah Matusek, staff writer, reporting from Tempe, Arizona
08:30 a.m. ET: Is political polling broken?
It’s Election Day, and public polls show the presidential race is a dead heat. That’s true nationally and in the key battleground states.
In fact, polling experts say, this is shaping up to be one of the closest presidential contests in American history.
Or is it? After all, the pollsters got 2016 wrong. And they were off by even more in 2020 – underestimating the strength of Donald Trump both times. This cycle, the polling industry has made important changes in how it operates.
To get people to respond, and to get a better sample, surveys are increasingly done by text and mail – yes, snail mail – in addition to phone, according to polling expert Nate Cohn of The New York Times.
Pollsters have also changed how they “weight” their data. That is, after getting their sample, they have a better idea of how to analyze what voters have told them, based on demographics, past voting behavior, and 2020 turnout. This excellent article by Mr. Cohn lays out how pollsters have adapted.
Public confidence in polling took a major hit after 2016 and 2020. That matters, because it affects trust in election results – and in government.
“Independent public polling has a critical role to play in a democratic society,” write experts from the nonpartisan Pew Research Center.
Even if pollsters can’t tell us who will win an election, they can provide a sense of what Americans are thinking.
When the six residents of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, cast the first votes of Election Day just after midnight, it was tied 3-3, between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump. Though not predictive, that result perfectly captures voter sentiment in 2024.
– Linda Feldmann, staff writer, reporting from Washington
08:15 a.m. ET: Georgia election worker arrested for fake bomb threat
Federal law enforcement arrested a 20-something Georgia poll worker on Monday for making a bomb threat against a polling place. The false threat comes amid heightened tensions and unprecedented security preparations at polling places around the United States on Election Day 2024.
After allegedly getting into a verbal altercation with a voter, on Oct. 16 Nicholas Wimbish of Milledgeville wrote a letter referencing threats at the polls by “young men” – a key constituency for Donald Trump’s reelection effort. “PS boom toy in early vote place, cigar burning, be safe,” a hand-scrawled ending to the letter noted.
The Election Threats Taskforce, which was initiated by the Department of Justice in 2021 to protect poll workers, arrested Mr. Wimbish Monday. He could face up to 25 years in prison if found guilty on several charges related to the letter.
– Patrik Jonsson, staff writer, reporting from Atlanta
08:10 a.m. ET: Which bellwether House districts should you keep an eye on?
Between the two of them, California and New York have more than enough swing congressional districts to determine which party will control the U.S. House of Representatives. But don’t look to either state for early clues. New York polls close relatively late, at 9 p.m. And because of the heavy volume of mail-in balloting in California, it might take days or even weeks to call the winners in the Golden State’s tight races. In 2022, the Associated Press didn’t call the last race there until Dec. 2.
For an early barometer, watch Virginia, where polls close at 7 p.m. and counting is “pretty fast,” suggests Jacob Smith, assistant professor of political science at Fordham University in New York. “Virginia’s second district is a really interesting one I see that goes back and forth,” he says – switching between parties five times since 2000. This suburban district is near the country’s largest Naval station, and two women with naval backgrounds are battling it out. Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal, who is leaning into reproductive rights, is challenging GOP Rep. Jennifer Kiggins, a freshman Republican who is running on kitchen-table issues.
Also keep an eye on VA-7, the open seat vacated by Democrat Abigail Spanberger, who is running for governor. The seat is rated as a “toss up” by the independent Cook Political Report.
– Francine Kiefer, staff writer, reporting from Pasadena, California
08:00 a.m. ET: What we can glean from 2024 early voting
In a campaign marked by high interest – and anxiety – millions of Americans cast their ballots before Election Day. When the polls opened Tuesday morning, almost 83 million people had already voted, either in-person or by mail or via drop-box. That’s more than half the 158.4 million people who voted in 2020.
The all-time record for early voting was in 2020, during the pandemic, when 101 million people voted early. But this year’s early vote is still noteworthy. In states that register voters by party, Republicans accounted for 36% of the votes cast while Democrats accounted for 38%, according to the University of Florida Election Lab.
That doesn’t necessarily indicate which candidate those people voted for. But it might be good news for former President Donald Trump. In 2020, only 30% of early voters were Republican, compared with 45% who were Democrats – though that year Mr. Trump had discouraged Republicans from voting early.
This year’s early vote also features a gender gap. In the states that report gender data for votes cast, 54% of early votes have been by women versus 44% by men. That may be good news for the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, who fares far better in polls among women than among men.
The final NBC News poll of the race found that women supported Vice President Harris over Mr. Trump by a 16-point margin, 57-41%. Men backed Mr. Trump by 18 percentage points (58-40%).
The massive gender gap may in part reflect this cycle’s focus on abortion rights, following the 2022 overturning of Roe v. Wade. Another factor could be the Trump campaign’s emphasis on hypermasculinity in its pitch to voters.
– Linda Feldmann, staff writer, reporting from Washington
