Probability of a lunar impact for Asteroid 2024 YR4 increase

The chance of Asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon has increased, according to boffins making observations from the James Webb Space Telescope.

NASA said data from the telescope “improved our knowledge of where the asteroid will be on Dec. 22, 2032, by nearly 20 percent.” The upshot is that there is now a 4.3 percent possibility that the asteroid will hit the Moon in 7.5 years’ time, although it wouldn’t alter the natural satellite’s orbit.

When Asteroid 2024 YR4 was detected, scientists reckoned it had a 1 in 100 chance of colliding with the Earth in 2032. As the weeks passed, and more measurements of the asteroid’s trajectory were made, that figure gradually increased before eventually being cut to almost zero.

However, there remains a risk, albeit small, that it might smack into the Moon. In April, NASA put the probability at 3.8 percent. Experts from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the agency’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California have now ncreased the probability to 4.3 percent.

According to NASA, “An international team led by Dr Andy Rivkin from the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland, made the observations using Webb’s Near-Infrared Camera in May.”

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is now too far away to be observed with either space or ground-based telescopes. The next time it will swing into view will be in 2028, when scientists will be able to refine its trajectory further and reduce or increase the probability of a collision accordingly.

Since an impact with the Moon won’t affect the orbit of the Earth’s natural satellite, Earth-dwellers are unlikely to be affected by the impact. In the event that a permanent human presence has been established on the lunar surface, it would be tremendously bad luck for any residents to be affected.

Russia and China have announced plans for a human presence on the Moon, as has the European Space Agency (ESA). NASA had also planned extended missions to the lunar surface, but those plans are currently in disarray following a budget request that cut the agency’s lunar ambitions and a response from lawmakers that aims to put some of them back. ®